KEY TAKEAWAYS Last week, the 10-year Treasury yield fell below the 3-month yield for the first time since 2007. Long-term yields have been suppressed by the Fed’s patient stance and international demand. We expect solid fundamentals to push the 10-year yield back...
KEY TAKEAWAYS February’s job growth was disappointing, but it followed the biggest two-month gain since 2016. Job growth and modestly rising wages remain strengths of the current economy. We don’t see signs of February’s jobs report impacting growth expectations or...
KEY TAKEAWAYS Our Beige Book Barometer has dropped to its lowest level since the 2011 European debt crisis. The lower BBB reading is due more to a low level of strong words than a high level of weak words. Mentions of uncertainty reached a new high amid global...
KEY TAKEAWAYS The current economic expansion will become the longest ever in July. Slow (but steady) growth and accommodative policy have made this expansion especially durable. We still see many signals that this cycle could persevere at least through the end of...
KEY TAKEAWAYS Recent economic data have been consistently missing consensus estimates. We still see signs of sound economic fundamentals, even as some data point to weakness. We expect growth to stabilize as near-term headwinds subside. Click here to download a PDF of...
KEY TAKEAWAYS We’ve lowered our 2019 forecasts for Fed policy moves, GDP growth, and rates. We expect the Fed to pause through the end of 2019 as it waits for clarity on global conditions. GDP may grow at the lower end of our forecast as capital expenditures have...
