KEY TAKEAWAYS We’ve lowered our 2019 forecasts for Fed policy moves, GDP growth, and rates. We expect the Fed to pause through the end of 2019 as it waits for clarity on global conditions. GDP may grow at the lower end of our forecast as capital expenditures have...
KEY TAKEAWAYS The market rally continues, with stocks off to their best year’s start since 1991. Near-term stocks are quite overbought and a pullback could be warranted. Yet, from a sentiment perspective, we still aren’t seeing signs of the over-the-top optimism that...
KEY TAKEAWAYS Consumer confidence has dropped sharply, primarily from what we see as temporary factors. Economic fundamentals are still sound and could help stabilize sentiment. We have yet to see the signs of excesses that have preceded past recessions. Click here to...
KEY TAKEAWAYS Earnings growth for the fourth quarter is tracking to a solid 17%, above prior estimates but below the pace of the previous three quarters. The bar has been substantially lowered for the first quarter, setting up potential upside surprises, particularly...
ECONOMY SOLID ECONOMY, BUT RISING UNCERTAINTY IN JANUARY REPORTS January’s reports painted a picture of a solid economy struggling with global uncertainty. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), an aggregate of ten leading indicators, declined 0.1% in...
Most of the country might still be in the throes of the winter, but after extreme cold throughout many parts of the United States, thankfully the weather has warmed up. Stocks followed a similar path, warming up in January after a chilling December. Since the lows in...
