KEY TAKEAWAYS Worrisome signals from the bond market contributed to stocks’ first monthly decline of 2019. While we expect rates to end the year solidly above current levels, until we get some good news on the trade front, rates are likely to remain stubbornly low. If...
KEY TAKEAWAYS The 10-year Treasury yield has declined at a rapid pace. Economic fundamentals still look sound, even as yields send cautious signals. Investors around the world have rushed into Treasuries for income, safety, and liquidity. Click here to download a PDF...
KEY TAKEAWAYS Our Five Forecasters are collectively indicating that further economic growth and stock market gains appear likely This economic cycle is about to turn 10 years old, but we see reasons it can continue. We take a look at market breadth and stock...
KEY TAKEAWAYS Our Five Forecasters collectively point to economic growth ahead. Leading indicators are still rising, but the pace has slowed recently. Yield curve inversion looks manageable given positive signs from other indicators. Click here to download a PDF of...
KEY TAKEAWAYS The United States has raised tariffs to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods. Even in the worst-case scenario, we don’t expect a significant impact on the U.S. economy. Raising tariffs could put upward pressure on consumer inflation. Click here to...
KEY TAKEAWAYS We consider first quarter earning season a success based on the upside surprise and resilience of estimates for the rest of this year. It appears an earnings recession has been averted and better earnings days lie ahead, though trade uncertainty is a...
