{"id":6558,"date":"2017-11-28T06:10:27","date_gmt":"2017-11-28T06:10:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swwadvisors2.bradcable.com\/?p=6558"},"modified":"2017-11-28T06:10:27","modified_gmt":"2017-11-28T06:10:27","slug":"weekly-market-commentary-november-27-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisors2.bradcable.com\/swwadvisorsdavid\/weekly-market-commentary-november-27-2017\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Commentary \u2013 November 27, 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Markets<\/strong><\/p>\n

There was a lot to be thankful for last week.<\/p>\n

Stock markets around the world may have ripened to full-slip sweetness this year. Emerging markets have delivered the most attractive returns year-to-date. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index was up 34 percent year-to-date, last week. The United States and Europe have marched higher, too. The Standard & Poor\u2019s 500 Index was up about 16 percent year-to-date, while the Euro Stoxx Index was up 11.3 percent, reported\u00a0Barron\u2019s<\/em>\u00a0and\u00a0The Wall Street Journal.<\/em><\/p>\n

The question is, \u201cHave markets become overripe?\u2019 As you might expect, opinions on the matter vary:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, told\u00a0CNBC<\/em>, \u201cI don’t see the elements of a bear market but I certainly think 2018 can bring us a correction or at least just a more challenging market.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2022 David Lebovitz, global market strategist with J.P. Morgan Asset Management, wrote in\u00a0Barron\u2019s,<\/em>\u201cHealthy earnings growth suggests that there is still upside in U.S. equities, but this area of the global equity market is most expensive relative to its long-term average. However, history has shown us that expensive stock markets can get more expensive before they get cheaper, as multiples tend to expand in the final stages of a bull market.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2022 Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at the Lindsey Group, told\u00a0CNBC,<\/em>\u00a0\u201cThis boat is now standing room only\u2026I still can’t figure out why some think there is no euphoria in markets when one has to go back 30 years to see this wide a spread between bulls and bears.\u201d<\/p>\n

Boockvar was referring to an early November Investors\u00a0Intelligence Sentiment Survey<\/em>, which gauges the attitudes of U.S. advisors.\u00a0CNBC<\/em>\u00a0reported 63.5 percent of those surveyed were bullish and just 14.4 percent were bearish. A gap of 30 points is a sign of elevated risk, while a 40-point difference suggests defensive measures may be appropriate.<\/p>\n

Individual investors aren\u2019t quite as confident. Last week\u2019s\u00a0AAII Sentiment Survey<\/em>\u00a0showed 35.5 percent were bullish, 29 percent were bearish, and the remainder were neutral. It\u2019s important to note, there was a distinct shift toward bullishness and away from bearishness in last week\u2019s survey.<\/p>\n

AND SOME PEOPLE WORRY ABOUT ZOMBIES.<\/strong>\u00a0Turkeys have played a central role in the history of the United States. In a letter to his daughter, Ben Franklin offered praise for the bird, which he called, \u201c\u2026a true original native of America\u2026(though a little vain and silly tis true, but not the worse emblem for that) a bird of courage, and would not hesitate to attack a grenadier of the British guards who should presume to invade his farm yard with a red coat on.\u201d<\/p>\n

He was correct about turkeys\u2019 aggressive streaks, but lately they haven\u2019t been after the British. Nope. Turkeys have been terrorizing Americans.\u00a0WBUR<\/em>\u00a0in Boston reports turkeys, which had disappeared from New England in the 1800s, have been successfully reintroduced to the region.<\/p>\n

The victory isn\u2019t being celebrated in all quarters, though. According to reports, turkeys seem to prefer suburbia where they\u2019ve been \u201cclashing with residents who say they destroy gardens, damage cars, chase pets, and attack people.\u201d<\/p>\n

The problem isn\u2019t unique to Massachusetts.<\/p>\n

In fact, turkey aggression has become so acute wildlife officials have offered the equivalent of a wild turkey survival guide. First, they recommend, cover windows and shiny objects (turkeys may respond aggressively to sparkly items and their own reflections). Second, Americans who are being intimidated by turkeys should not \u201c…hesitate to scare or threaten a bold, aggressive turkey with loud noises, swatting with a broom, or water sprayed from a hose. A dog on a leash is also an effective deterrent.\u201d<\/p>\n

Climbing trees is not an effective way to escape the menacing fowl. Domestic turkeys cannot fly, but wild turkeys can soar at speeds of up to 55 mph for short distances, according to\u00a0LiveScience.com<\/a><\/em>. Next time you spot a rafter of turkeys, remember: \u201cTurkeys in the wild are far stronger and faster than the ones that land on Thanksgiving tables.\u201d<\/p>\n

Weekly Focus \u2013 Think About It\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cThree econometricians [people who prepare economic statistics] go hunting, and they spot a large deer. The first econometrician fires but his shot goes three-feet wide to the left. The second econometrician, he fires also, but he misses. His shot goes three feet to the right. The third econometrician starts jumping up and down shouting: We got it! We got it!\u201d
\n—Planet Money, radio show<\/em>
\n 
\n* These views are those of Carson Group Coaching, and not the presenting Representative or the Representative\u2019s Broker\/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice.
\n* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Group Coaching. Carson Group Coaching is not affiliated with the named broker\/dealer.
\n* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.\u00a0 However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
\n* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
\n* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
\n* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
\n* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
\n* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
\n* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
\n* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
\n* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
\n* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
\n* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
\n* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
\n* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
\n* You cannot invest directly in an index.* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
\n* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.><\/p>\n

Sources:<\/strong>
\nhttps:\/\/www.barrons.com\/articles\/how-to-play-emerging-markets-now-1511579482<\/a>\u00a0(or go to\u00a0https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/peakcontent\/+Peak+Commentary\/11-27-17_Barrons-How_to_Play_Emerging_Markets_Now-Footnote_1.pdf<\/a>)
\nhttp:\/\/www.wsj.com\/mdc\/public\/page\/2_3022-intlstkidx.html<\/a>\u00a0(or go to\u00a0https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/peakcontent\/+Peak+Commentary\/11-27-17_WSJ-YTD_Euro_Stoxx_Index_on_11-24-17-Footnote_2.pdf<\/a>)
\nhttps:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2017\/11\/21\/jim-paulsen-sees-a-correction-or-a-more-challenging-market-in-2018.html<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/www.barrons.com\/articles\/on-the-minds-of-advisors-top-3-questions-of-2017-1510605584<\/a>\u00a0(or go to\u00a0https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/peakcontent\/+Peak+Commentary\/11-27-17_Barrons_On_the_Minds_of_Advisors-Top_3_Questions_of_2017-Footnote_4.pdf<\/a>)
\nhttps:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2017\/11\/01\/market-optimism-at-black-monday-level-potential-significant-danger.html<\/a>
\nhttp:\/\/www.aaii.com\/sentimentsurvey<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/founders.archives.gov\/documents\/Franklin\/01-41-02-0327<\/a>
\nhttp:\/\/www.wbur.org\/news\/2017\/10\/13\/resurgent-wild-turkeys-troll-boston<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/www.mass.gov\/service-details\/prevent-conflicts-with-turkeys<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/www.livescience.com\/7630-5-surprising-turkey-facts.html<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/www.npr.org\/2015\/04\/01\/396871377\/on-april-fools-day-planet-money-tries-out-economics-jokes<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Stock markets around the world may have ripened to full-slip sweetness this year. Emerging markets have delivered the most attractive returns year-to-date.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","wds_primary_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6558","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisors2.bradcable.com\/swwadvisorsdavid\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6558","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisors2.bradcable.com\/swwadvisorsdavid\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisors2.bradcable.com\/swwadvisorsdavid\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisors2.bradcable.com\/swwadvisorsdavid\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisors2.bradcable.com\/swwadvisorsdavid\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6558"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/advisors2.bradcable.com\/swwadvisorsdavid\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6558\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisors2.bradcable.com\/swwadvisorsdavid\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6558"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisors2.bradcable.com\/swwadvisorsdavid\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6558"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisors2.bradcable.com\/swwadvisorsdavid\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6558"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}